El Indec dará a conocer este jueves cuál fue la cifra de inflación mensual de abril, que volverá a mostrar un índice muy alto, aunque levemente por debajo del 6,7% récord que había registrado en marzo. Al menos así lo asume el Gobierno, que además reconoce que será un dato difícil de digerir para la coalición de gobierno, en medio de internas encarnizadas por la dirección de la política económica y de una discusión abierta con el Fondo Monetario Internacional para recalcular las proyecciones de precios para lo que resta del año.
Tras el salto en la variación de precios de marzo, con una cifra mensual que fue récord en los últimos 20 años, el IPC de abril debería ser cercano al 6%, al menos según admiten algunas fuentes integrantes del equipo económico de Alberto Fernández. Tal como explicó Infobae, en el Poder Ejecutivo las esperanzas están puestas en que en mayo, pasada la escalada inicial de precios por la guerra en Ucrania, la inflación vuelva a un nivel pre conflicto bélico, en un rango de entre 3 y 4 por ciento.
El dato de marzo provocó una “recalibración”, para usar el término que planteó el FMI y que el equipo económico esquiva, de las perspectivas para este año. Los analistas del mercado consultados pronosticaron en el Relevamiento de Expectativas de Mercado (REM) que el Índice de Precios al Consumidor aumentará un 65,1% en 2022, lo que implica una suba de 5,9 puntos porcentuales respecto de la encuesta del mes previo. Asimismo, los consultores esperan un incremento del 5,6% para abril. Para mayo prevén un 4,4% y para junio un 4,2 por ciento.
El ritmo de los precios al consumidor
En ese marco, los participantes del REM revisaron las previsiones de inflación para 2023 ubicándola en 50,5% interanual, lo que arrojó una suba de 3,1 puntos porcentuales más que el REM de marzo. Y para 2024 estimaron una inflación de 43,7% interanual, es decir 2,8 puntos porcentuales superior al anterior relevamiento.
Respecto de la inflación núcleo, aquella que no incluye los precios estacionales y los regulados, los consultores estimaron que la misma alcanzaría el 64,2% interanual a fines de 2022, lo que implica unos 4,2 puntos porcentuales más que en la encuesta de marzo.
Desde el Gobierno admiten ahora que un rango anual de suba de precios de entre 60 y 65% -este último número ya apareció en el REM en su última entrega- aparece como una posibilidad “realista”. “Ese es número es esperable en caso de que salga todo bien”, se sinceró un funcionario económico.
Tras el salto en la variación de precios de marzo, con una cifra mensual que fue récord en los últimos 20 años, el IPC de abril debería ser cercano al 6 por ciento
Entre las consultoras, Orlando Ferreres calculó un 6,3%; Analytica proyectó un 5,8% para el IPC de abril; EcoGo estimó 5,7%; Focus Market y LCG un 5,5% y 4,8% para el caso de C&T Asesores Económicos, que hace un muestreo en el Gran Buenos Aires.
Inflación: qué ve el Gobierno y cuál es el plan contra la inflación
En el Poder Ejecutivo confían en el programa macroeconómico que firmaron con el FMI como sendero para establecer condiciones de desaceleración inflacionaria, pero aseguran que ese efecto todavía no tiene lugar porque “es muy nuevo”.
“El mundo está yendo hacia niveles de inflación superiores a los que fueron las últimas décadas, pero Argentina la inflación ha estado presente en la mayor parte de la historia reciente de la Argentina. Y esto tiene que ver con un conjunto de factores que hace que la economía Argentina se comporte en forma intranquila”, dijo por un lado el ministro de Economía Martín Guzmán.
“Ahora el foco está en un sentido común sobre qué cosas funciona y qué cosas no funcionan”, aseguro. “La inflación tiene múltiples causas. Primero se ataca con un programa económico que sea consistente. Si no hay recuperación no hay estabilización posible, y por otro lado se conecten el mediano plazo con el corto plazo. Hacer cosas que tienen un foco cortoplacista que termina generando crisis es lo que buscamos evitar”, agregó.
La tesis del ministro de Economía es que habría en los meses siguientes, ya sin una presión –según esperan– tan pronunciada del frente inflacionario externo, una tendencia de desaceleración, por lo que la peor parte del impacto en los precios ya debería haber sucedido.
Según sostiene el jefe del Palacio de Hacienda, hay una serie de medidas que “preparan el terreno” para una menor presión inflacionaria. Las tres están relacionadas con el programa económico acordado con el Fondo Monetario Internacional: la reducción del déficit primario, el recorte de la emisión monetaria y la acumulación de reservas.
De acuerdo a esta hipótesis un plan económico de estas características –que busca, como una de sus metas, alinear expectativas– debe tener, por definición, un apoyo político fuerte, por lo que un ruido interno de esa magnitud conspira contra su efectividad.
Fuente: Infobae
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